THE ITALIAN CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: THE FEARS BEHIND THE NO VOTE (on SPERI.comment: the political economy blog)

SPERI (Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute) have published an interesting analysis by Fabio Bordignon, Luigi Ceccarini and Ilvo Diamanti on the voting dynamics behind the results of the Constitutional Referendum held in Italy in December 2016. Continue reading “THE ITALIAN CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: THE FEARS BEHIND THE NO VOTE (on SPERI.comment: the political economy blog)”

Who’s afraid of the Em Five Es? by James Newell

arton10595It is widely believed that if Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform in Italy is not passed, then comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five-star Movement (M5s) could cause considerable political, not to say economic, upset. The belief arises from the fact that the M5s wants a referendum on Italy’s membership of the Euro. And if Italy were to leave the Euro, it is suggested, then the EU itself would be placed in danger.

It is thought that if the No side loses then Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi will resign. A period of political uncertainty and turmoil will, so one story goes, put wind in the Movement’s sails, and fresh elections will see an M5s victory. Elections have to be held no later than early 2018.

Continue reading “Who’s afraid of the Em Five Es? by James Newell”

The Italian Referendum: What should we expect after Sunday? by James Newell

schede_referendum-1300x680-630x330This coming Sunday, Italians go to the polls in a constitutional referendum. This has been widely dubbed as offering the stage for a third ‘popular revolt’ against the establishment following Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Matteo Salvini, the leader of the right-wing populist Northern League, on receiving the news of Trump’s election was heard to exclaim: “Now its our turn!”

And the potential consequences of the referendum have often been painted in lurid colours with suggestions that it could bring the populist Five-star Movement (M5S) to power. The party has demanded a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro. This could herald the break-up of the EU, it is said. On the left, it is pointed out that the proposed changes to the Constitution are massive. These, it is said, could lead to a reduction of political accountability and checks and balances that put in doubt Italy’s very status as a constitutional democracy.

The reality is much more prosaic and here’s why.

Continue reading “The Italian Referendum: What should we expect after Sunday? by James Newell”

Political Insight – Addressing the democratic crisis Italian style: the constitutional referendum of Matteo Renzi By James Newell

In a post on Political Insight James Newell shares his interesting analysis on Italian constitutional referendum to be held in Frenziall 2016.

Here the link:

Addressing the democratic crisis Italian style: the constitutional referendum of Matteo Renzi

 

Analysis of electoral flows in the recent local elections

The Istituto Cattaneo has just published a brief  analysis of electoral flows in seven Italian cities, examining the flows of votes from the first to second round of the municipal elections of Torino, Bologna, Napoli, Novara, Varese, Grosseto and Brindisi (data for the two main cities, Rome and Milan, is not yet available). The analysis – by Rinaldo Vignati, Pasquale Colloca, Domenico Fruncillo, Michelangelo Gentilini, Mario Marino and Marco Valbruzzi – can be accessed from this link: http://www.cattaneo.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Analisi-Istituto-Cattaneo-Ballottaggi-Comunali-2016-Flussi-elettorali-20.06.16.pdf (in Italian).